#OHSEN RATINGS CHANGE: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Race Rating Moves Toward Tim Ryan

Today, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved its Ohio Senate race rating toward Tim Ryan from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” 

This ratings change underscores how San Francisco fraud JD Vance “has been outraised, outspent, and outmaneuvered all summer by Rep. Tim Ryan,” earning him criticism and concern from GOP leaders and forcing out-of-state Republicans to invest in a $28 million rescue mission (which itself comes on the heels of a nearly $5 million bailout). Meanwhile, Tim Ryan continues to campaign in every corner of the state, meet face-to-face with Ohio workers, and build momentum going into November — leading Sabato’s Crystal Ball to note that recent public polling may “actually understate [Tim Ryan’s] advantage” in the race. 

“Ohioans see JD Vance for exactly who he is: a fraud who is only in this race for himself and won’t fight for Ohio workers in the Senate,” said Tim for Ohio spokesperson Jordan Fuja. “As Ohioans learn more about the choice in this year’s election, between a San Francisco millionaire who believes rape victims should have to give birth to their assailant’s baby and founded a scammy non-profit that brought a Big Pharma mouthpiece to the epicenter of the opioid epidemic, and a native son of the Mahoning Valley who’s fought for workers every day of his career, they’re choosing Tim every single time, and will continue to do so now until November.” 

Read highlights from Sabato’s Crystal Ball

  • We’re moving the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. 
  • The Hillbilly Elegy author has been outraised, outspent, and outmaneuvered all summer by Rep. Tim Ryan (D, OH-13), who has been using his superior funding to both hammer Vance and bolster himself. 
  • Our understanding is that private polling in the race is good for Ryan and that an internal poll released several weeks ago by Ryan’s campaign showing him leading 48%-45% may actually understate his advantage compared to unreleased surveys on both sides. 
  • …this gigantic ad reservation by SLF has to be taken into account as well, a sign that top Republicans believe that they cannot just take this race for granted — that it will take real money to snap this race back to where Republicans believe it should be.
  • However, we also have to allow for the possibility that the internal polls we’ve heard about are correct and that Vance actually is in a good deal of trouble — and that he really does require a deus ex machina moment from the GOP’s version of the Riders of Rohan.