ICYMI: First General Election #OHSen Poll Shows “Neck and Neck” Race Within Margin of Error

“​​independents… were more likely to support Ryan and hold a favorable view of him”

The first public poll of Ohio’s “crucial” U.S. Senate race since the start of the general election shows Tim Ryan running “neck and neck” with J.D. Vance. According to the new poll, Tim is winning among key independent voters, 43%-32%, and leading 44%-41% among those who know both candidates.

The poll, conducted by Suffolk University for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, also shows Tim holding a higher favorable rating than Vance and room to grow, as the California transplant “recovers from a bruising GOP primary.”

“While J.D. Vance struggles to find his footing back in Ohio after a nasty primary and years on the coasts, Tim’s momentum is real and growing,” said Tim for Ohio spokesperson Izzi Levy. “Tim is leading with key voters in this battleground race because he’s the only candidate Ohioans trust to fight for them.”

Read more of the poll’s findings here:

  • Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan are neck and neck just weeks after winning their primary races, according to a USA TODAY Network Ohio/Suffolk University poll released Wednesday. Vance was the favorite with 41.6% of voters, but Ryan trailed closely behind at 39.4%.
  • The result was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
  • Ryan is trying to win over moderates as Vance recovers from a bruising GOP primary.
  • Ohio’s race could be crucial to control of the U.S. Senate. There are 34 Senate seats up in 2022, providing both parties a chance to make gains in a Senate evenly split between 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. Ohio’s seat is now held by retiring Sen. Rob Portman, a Republican.
  • The Senate race is undoubtedly grabbing the attention of Ohio voters: Roughly 71% said they were either extremely or very interested in it. 
  • Support for Vance and Ryan largely fell along party lines, but independents such as Andrew Testa of North Ridgeville were more likely to support Ryan and hold a favorable view of him. Testa said he’s probably going to vote for Ryan over Vance, contending the congressman has always looked out for his constituents. 
  • “I like his proactive approach to commercials,” Testa said. “You know, hey, maybe we’ve not done everything right in the past. I understand that with trade agreements and things in the past. But he seems willing to make things right.”

Read the full analysis here.